This week, I have been discussing the different approaches to blog analytics that can be used to determine what posts from a blog’s archive are most popular, and whether a blog is front-loaded or long-tailed. The thesis is that it’s not always what the words in the blog are that are important.

In a guest post this morning at ProBlogger, Skellie discusses how the value of social media visitors is different and inherently more complex than the value of visitors generated from traditional methods, such as search and feedreaders. Her eight points further support my ideas that the old advertising models are not the best suited for the new blogging world.

Stepping away from the existing advertising models that have been used since blogging popularity exploded in 2005 and 2006, it is clear that the new, interactive social web model requires an advertising approach that centers on community and conversation, rather than the older idea of context and aggregated readership.

The Current Model

Current blog advertising falls into two categories:

1. Contextual Ads. This is the Google model, and is based on the ad network auctioning off keywords and phrases to advertisers for the privilege of seeing their ad links or images appear on pages that contain those words or phrases.
2. Sponsored Ads. Once a blog is popular enough and can prove a well-developed audience, the blogger can offer to sell space on his blog to advertisers who wish to have their products, offerings or companies presented to the target audience.

In my opinion, these two approaches fail blog owners.

Contextual ads understand the content of the page, but do not understand the popularity of the page, or its relationship to the popularity of other pages in the archive.Contextual ads lack a sense of community, a sense of conversation. While the model has proven successful, it does not maximize the reach that a blog has with its own audience.

Sponsored ads understand the audience that the blog reaches, but do not account for posts that draw the readers’ attention for the longest time, both in terms of time spent reading and thinking about the post as well as over time in an historical sense. The sponsored ad model assumes that all posts get equal attention, or drive community and conversation to the same degree.

The New Model

In the new model, more effective use of visitor analytics is vital to shaping the type and value of the ads sold. Studying the visitor statistics of a blog will allow the owners to see whether the blog is, in general, front-loaded or long-tailed.

If the blog has a front-loaded audience, the most recent posts are of higher value and could be auctioned of at higher prices. In order for this to work, both the ad-hoster and the advertiser would have to agree to the value of the most recent posts using a proven and open statistical analysis methodology. In the case of front-loaded blogs, this analysis methodology would have to demonstrate that there is a higher traffic volume for posts that are between 0-3 days old (setting a hypothetical boundary on front-loading).

For blogs that are long-tailed, those posts that continue to draw consistent traffic would be valued far more highly than those that fall out into the general ebb and flow of a bloggers traffic. These posts have proven historically that they appear highly in search results and are visited often.

In addition to the posts themselves, the comment stream has to be considered. Posts that generate an active conversation are farmore valuable those that don’t. Again, showing the value of the conversation is reliant of the ability to track the numbers of people in the conversation (through Disqus or some other commenting system).

This model can be further augmented by using a tool like Lookery that helps to clearly establish the demographics of the blog audience. Being able to pinpoint not only where on a blog to advertise but also who the visitors are who view those page, provides a further selling point for this new model and helps build faith in the virtues of a blog that sells space using this new, more effectively targeted advertising pricing structure.

Now, I separate the front-loaded and long-tailed blogs as if they are distinct. Obviously these categories apply to nearly every blog as there are new posts that suddenly capture the imagination of an audience, and there are older posts that continue to provide specific information that draws a steady stream of traffic to them.

Summary

This is a very early stage idea, one that has no code or methodology to support it. However, I believe that the current contextual advertising model, one based solely on the content of the post, is not allowing the content creators and blog entities to take advantage of their most valuable resource - their own posts and the conversations that they create.

I also believe that blog owners are not taking advantage of their own best resource, Web analytics, to help determine the price for advertising of their site. Not all blog posts are created or read equally. Being able to very clearly show what drives the most eyeballs to your site is a selling point that can be used in a variable-price advertising model.

By providing tools to blog owners that intimately link the analytics they already gather and the advertising space they have to sell, a new advertising model can arise, one that is uniquely suited to the new Web. This advertising model will be founded in the concepts of conversation and community, providing more discretely targeted eyeballs to advertisers, and higher ad revenues to blog owners and content creators.

UPDATES

Appears that BuzzLogic has already started down this path. VentureBeat has commentary here.

Tags: ad network, advertising, advertising approach, advertising initiatives, advertising model, advertising models, advertising space, analytics, audience, blog advertising, blog advertising works, BuzzLogic, contextual ads, contextual advertising, contextual advertising model, front-loaded, Google, interactive social web model, long tail, long-tailed, search results, social media visitors, statistics, traffic, variable-price advertising model, VentureBeat, views, Web analytics

GrabPERF is slowly winding down as a public-facing entity. All that is left for non-subscribers are the Search and News Index Overviews.

I will continue to use the data as a demonstration tool, and graphs and data will dot my my blog posts.

And remember, the whole system is on the block; no reasonable offer will be dismissed.

Thanks for your comments and support over the last few months. It’s been a great run.

Tags: blog, blog posts, data, GrabPERF, GrabPERF.org, HTTP, IE, it, Om, posts, run, search, views

Scoble posts Ballmer’s memo.

That Microsoft has a legislative agenda scares me. That this bill wasn’t on it, and, as such, was then disowned by the company makes the scenario worse.

Steve Ballmer: You control the world’s wealthiest corporation. You say you are hardcore for diversity. Then you say:

It’s appropriate to invoke the company’s name on issues of public policy that directly affect our business and our shareholders, but it’s much less clear when it’s appropriate to invoke the company’s name on broader issues that go far beyond the software industry — and on which our employees and shareholders hold widely divergent opinions. We are a public corporation with a duty first and foremost to a broad group of shareholders. On some issues, it is more appropriate for employees or shareholders to get involved as individual citizens. As CEO, I feel a real sense of responsibility around this question, and I believe there are important distinctions between my personal views on policy issues and when it’s appropriate to involve the company.

You know how many of your most talented current, former and possibly future employees will see this situation. It is a black eye for Microsoft. It shows all of us, those of us who live in the US but are not citizens, as well as the 48% of the population who do not agree with the current leadership, that your compant lacks the moral fiber to take a stand.

I am ashamed to use Microsoft products, because now they aren’t about the people who use them; they are about the company’s shareholders.

Microsoft: Your money. Our profits. Our shareholder’s dividends.

Tags: app, blog, business, control, cro, current, diversity, EAD, HTML, HTTP, IE, IM, IP, Issues, it, live, Microsoft, Om, One, opinion, personal, posts, pr, views, web

Back in November, I mentioned that I was working on the idea of new ways to benchmark the success of online businesses in today’s more mature operational environment. I am still working on the base ideas, but a colleague of mine has helped me coalesce some ideas, and they are now forming the foundation of the concepts my company will begin using internally to more deeply understand the various Web performance benchmarks we monitor.

For those who use the existing Web performance benchmarks to determine the success and failure of your online business, you understand how thin the veneer is on these benchmarks. They do not provide true insight into the operational success of an online business, and they are more likely to sow the seeds of distrust between IT and Business operations in the long-term by creating an artificial standard which becomes the goal.

If an online business truly wants to achieve and maintain exemplary Web performance numbers, it has to start with a strong foundation, and build on it. Why? The team I work with spends a lot of time trying to understand and reverse engineer the broken processes, designs, and architectures that were laid out in order to get big fast. After 3-4 years of technical starvation and underfunding, these online businesses are beginning to show strain; the temporary fix has become the permanently broken process.

The rush into the Web analytics space in the last few weeks is a key sign that companies now see value in and want to exploit the vast quantities of data that they collect on their traffic daily. Web analytics is an astoundingly complex field, but most people boil it up to a single concept: How many Unique Page Views did I get?

Unique Page Views is an outdated Web server analytics metric. It does not tell me anything about the business, other than it has a lot of traffic. Back in the “eyeballs are everything” period, this would have been a big deal. Now, I say so what, and start asking:

• From where
• Dialup? Broadband?
• How many were able to successfully complete their transactions?
• What paths are most visited
• Average spend by connection type?
• Average spend by hour?
• etc.

Like Unique Page Views, the average Web performance and availability of a Web page or transaction does not accurately represent the overall health of any online business. Within the large populations of data that exist at the Web measurement firms, there is a wealth of data that could be used to clearly expose more important benchmarking statistics.

If you are from an online business, you already understand that the average performance over an artificially-defined period of time is a very inaccurate way to measure the success of the online business. However, it is the accepted standard in the field. Underlying those aggregated values, there are clearly-defined statistical methods which can be used to extract even more meaningful information from the mass of measurement data.

I would discuss more of the ideas and concepts that we are working on, but I know that I do get visitors from our competitors, so I will have to keep our ideas under wraps for right now.

But I want to hear yours. What does your online business use as a benchmark for success? Standard avergae performance and availability? Or something more complex that examines the performance data as a complete population, as opposed to an aggregated summary value? Does your firm tie business goals and objectives into the performance benchmarks so that people across the company can understand how the business is succeeding, and how delivering a good, bad, and downright awful online performance experience can affect the bottom line?

This is an exciting time to have access to large amounts of data on the health of the Internet.

Tags: analytics, benchmarking, benchmarks, broadband, business, cro, data, design, EAD, HTTP, IE, IM, information, Internet, it, live, maintain, measurement, Om, One, online, page views, performance, PHP, pr, server, statistics, traffic, views, visitors, web, Web analytics, Web Performance, Web server

Via AdRants

Either a joke or a simple error, Amazon has listed a Viewsonic monitor as a computer having a 10GB chip, 2,000 DIMM, a 30,000 GB hard drive and weighing 14 hundredths-pounds. All for $2,312.95. Certainly, there will be computers that powerful someday soon but not right now. One reviewer raved about the “product,” writing, “This laptop is the bargain of the decade. 10.00GHZ of power. I use one to currently calculate the meaning of life, the universe and everything. I even caught it calculating on how to make the perfect cup of tea. The speed that this laptop can move at is nothing short of outstanding. Shame it doesn’t have legs though.”

Another one of the comments on this product.

I got one of these for the multi-OS capability. So far, it runs HP-UX, Red Hat, BSD (2 flavors), XENIX, OS X, AIX, AppleDOS, Solaris, DG-UX, Netware, Debian, Mandrake, CP/M, QNX, Win 3.11, Win95, Win95b, Win98, Win98se, WinME, WinCE, Os/2, NT [34], Windows server 200[03], DR-DOS, & BeOS, all in separate windows. Couldn’t load SCO - licensing issues. We also managed to get Lotus Agenda working pretty well; we dumped the entire Internet into Agenda and were able to solve most of the world’s crimes and determine who on the planet is related to whom. And we were able to use the included Cray Supercomputer Simulator (4 instances simultaneously) to beat Deep Blue and Baby Blue at chess, at the same time. Nice machine. But I think soon I’ll need an upgrade.

Tags: app, Apple, current, HTTP, IE, IM, Internet, IP, Issues, it, LAN, Mac, media, Om, One, PHP, pr, review, run, server, views, window, Windows

I am glad to see the 4th Estate re-invigorated and challenged to go get the story again. Since the end of the Nixon debacle, the media has been slowly sliding into the lazy habits of the well-fed and pampered. Now that the barbarians are pounding at the gates (an analogy I will not use again), the media is being forced to find stories.

Their will be an increase in partisanship and subjectivity. However, if you look at the long history of the media, this is not new. It’s just that there is a generation who has seen the rise of a relatively independent media, followed by it’s slide into debauchery and depravity.

I gained my knowledge of the behaviour of the media from the writings of Hunter S Thompson. Some will say that this is a bad source, but I learned about the pyramid, and other journalistic terms while wading through his vitriol and disdain for the mediocre.

For me, the newspaper is simply a bulletin board. It tells me about happenings, but rarely takes the time to do much else. The question is: what is the newspaper’s market? What is the niche that they are serving?

I can get all of the stories in the newspaper on-line. In fact, not just from one newspaper. And with blogs and feeds, I can get more detail than I have ever imagined, or am able to process.

So, I ask the newspaper “writers” and “editors”, why should I pick up your paper? Beyond the portability of your product, an advantage that is diminishing by the second, is there a sound economic reason for newpapers to continue to exist.

I am sure that there are deeper thinkers than I, who have considered this, and have deep philosophical thoughts on this. But, how do you convince me and my ilk, the iPod-wearing, laptop-toting, instantly-gratifiable leading edge to buy your product?

What makes a newspaper sexy? What about a newspaper makes me want to pick one up on a daily basis?

Answering that “I am not your target market” is no longer viable. Joe Lunchbucket wants his scores now to track his pools. Reviews are plentiful, and targeted; the local critic no longer can control a market. Recipes and home ideas? Please!

Is there a reason, beyond the persistence of memory, for newspapers to exist as physical entities in the digital age?

Tags: app, ARIN, blog, control, EAD, feeds, IE, IM, IP, it, media, Om, One, pr, review, views

Wil Wheaton. We all made fun of him when he was Wesley.

Now, he is an Adult. About my age (Ok, same age as my corporate VP younger brother). Same concerns, habits, pets, job interviews, hobbies and clubs we all have.

And he writes very well.

Read this to make your day.

Tags: corporate, EAD, HTTP, IE, IM, it, PHP, views

Looks like I may be doing a lot more travelling in the near future. Got handed a really cool research project that involves customer interviews, strategic positioning, and market research. All of the elemnts of my bag of tricks I want to exercise.

In that vein, here are some cool tips for frequent travellers.

Tags: cool, HTML, HTTP, IE, IP, it, Om, pr, search, views

Read this. You will understand.

I have been lucky to be on the good side of performance reviews for most of my career. And, when I don’t have to deal with them every single hour of every single day, I lavish instense attention on those customers that I speak with, write to, and meet with. I treat them as though they are the only customer I have at that moment.

But the other side of the coin is that the customer has to give me 100%. I have been learning that there are some customers you can’t help because they are not ready to be helped. The hard part for me is learning to say no.

Tags: attention, customers, EAD, HTML, HTTP, IE, it, Om, performance, review, the other, users, views

Someday, I will get around to posting the OPML of who I read.

Doing a quick inventory of the people I read regularly, it turns out that the vast majority of them are in strategic sales and/or marketing professions. This should surprise a few people, given that I am, for the most part, a techno-dweeb.

The insights and views that these authors bring to me helps rattle my cage and gives me a perspective on the ideas that shape the business forces which affect my day-to-day life. And they also help me think differently (Sorry Apple) about everything I do.

How does this project affect my professional development? Does it contribute to my personal and professional brand? Does it help my company gain additional market share? Does it help us sell more? Does it contribute to our strategic goals, or is it a useful tactical device?

Whenever I work on anything, I consider many more things than I did before. Doing something because you love it isn’t enough anymore.

Tags: app, Apple, brand, business, EAD, HTTP, IE, it, marketing, Om, One, personal, posting, pr, views